The Great Chance of Multipolarity

Geopolitical stories by Dr. Katja Banik.

Many people do not realize how lucky we all are to be living in these times of change and upheaval – so, let’s make something of it!

„Schönheit ist überall ein gar willkommener Gast“ [1] (Goethe)

Russia with a reach: Peaceful grazing horses. Russia/Lithuania border near Rusnè.

(Summer 2023).

Multipolarity is a reality

One cycle comes to an end and a new cycle begins. The gravity of the world shifts, the old thinking, the old structures slowly disappear and something new emerges.

That is why the multipolar world or regionalization of the world requires more calm—hotheads are out of place—more de-escalation, communication, understanding, understanding for the interests of other countries, foresight and, above all, the courage to face the new challenges and to seize opportunities.

We are also at the beginning of a new economic era: We are experiencing the increasing digitalization of our everyday lives, including artificial intelligence (AI), which is massively changing not only our working world, but also our lives.

Our reality is determined by trade wars, tariff increases, new borders, the expansion of old border fortifications and numerous divisions in our society.

Globalization has reached its boiling point. Ever more, ever higher and ever further. When will enough finally be enough?

Jacques Ancel or the identity of the heart

One vision, an approach that is becoming more relevant today than ever before, is that of the French geopolitician Jacques Ancel.

The geographer and geopolitician Jacques Ancel laid the foundation of the French geopolitical thinking. According to Ancel, man is the creator of global governance, of identities and, subsequently, also the borders of civilizations, where "human groups ... reach a harmonious balance and ... end up recognizing borders deriving from a common memory, history, culture and language". It is "a nation of the heart in itself, not rational". [2]

According to Jacques Ancel, it is above all “the spiritual factors, the intangible factors, that determine our external world. Only a nation that is firmly anchored in itself creates harmony and solidarity “.[3]

Multipolar world order or the world in regions

Much has been written about it, much has been said about it, and unfortunately it is all too often the subject of heated debate: Whether we like it or not—we have arrived in the multipolar world order.

The players of the bipolar world are still making their presence felt, often with ill-considered decisions and actions. Panama, Greenland and Ukraine—just a few examples of the last throes of US imperialism. The drastic increase in import tariffs and their partial withdrawal by the Trump administration appears to be an attempt to prevent the multipolar world order after all. One thing is certain, Trump is not a wise, far-sighted strategist. And yet, he is not only bringing movement to the Ukraine conflict, he is also shaking up entrenched structures and beliefs.

The massive tariff dispute between China and the US has at least brought both parties to bilateral talks. Perhaps that is Trump's intention. What is certain, however, is that a complete decoupling from China is unrealistic. The country is too closely integrated into the global production chain. China has long since ceased to be the "extended workbench" and is now a pioneer with a technological lead, in some cases a very wide one.

Basically, we are experiencing a completely normal developmental step in the merry-go-round of world history. One cycle ends and a new cycle begins. At some point, even the biggest hegemon has to step down and make room for new powers. China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa make up the core members of the BRICS community, which is constantly expanding as new countries are joining it. With ASEAN, Eurasia, new centers of power appear on the world stage, countries become more self-confident, go their own way and break away from the superpowers and the path they have mapped out.

In our global world where we are all connected, anything is possible. New doors are opening and new opportunities are waiting to be seized. Old ways of thinking, often encrusted since the end of World War II, are no longer relevant. In particular, the EU must redefine itself. It can no longer hide behind the supposed protecting power, the USA.

Thinking bigger, sovereignty, autonomy and personal responsibility are required. The

continent of Europe encompasses more than the current EU.

Russia, the largest country in the world, stretches from Eastern Europe to Northern Asia. The Urals are the border between Europe and Asia. Dialogue between all European countries and Russia should be resumed with courage and foresight, and bridges of understanding should be rebuilt. ^[4]

Wars and conflicts

Our common goal should be to live in a world that is as peaceful and harmonious as possible. To achieve this, we should all be aware that wars and conflicts are always about hard factors and the interests of the warring parties. They are never about the well-being of the people, let alone democracy. That much should be clear to us all.

The global wars and conflicts are primarily about natural resources such as diamonds, gold, silver and uranium or raw materials such as coal and gas, and now increasingly about the often-cited rare earths.

Ukraine and Greenland

There is a proxy war being fought in Ukraine—a war between the USA and Russia. Only the USA and Russia can end the war—Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky are both extras and victims of a war between brothers, between Russians and Ukrainians.

Ukraine is not only an important global supplier of agricultural products such as sunflower oil, wheat, barley and corn, it is also rich in numerous raw materials such as natural gas, crude oil and coal. Among other things, Ukraine is believed to have one of the largest mineable deposit of rare earths. [5]

The geopolitical challenges we are facing are not only global conflicts, but also the struggle for access to critical raw materials, such as rare earths, which are important for the defense industry, renewable energies and the high-tech sector, among others. Ukraine's geographical location makes the country very attractive to Western countries, as it enables them to become less dependent on China in the area of critical raw materials.

"Ukraine is an important supplier of titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, fluoride and nickel, among others. The country has the largest titanium deposit in Europe (7% of global deposits) and is one of the few countries that mine titanium ore, important for the aerospace, marine, medical and automotive industries. Furthermore, Ukraine has one of the largest lithium deposits, important for batteries, among other things. The country is an important producer of gallium, essential for the semiconductor industry and LEDs." [6]

Keeping this information in mind, we can reach a better understanding of why Ukraine is being targeted. Human lives do not count. The victims are, and will continue to be, the people in Ukraine and Russia, all those who are actively involved in the fighting.

In recent years Greenland appears have developed into a new geostrategic center. The country is said to have almost immeasurable untapped raw material deposits, including critical raw materials such as rare earths.

In the long term, these raw material deposits in Greenland could also help to make “the Western world” less dependent on China; as China holds around 90% of the world's rare earth metals.

But Greenland is still sitting on untapped raw material deposits. This means that the country will initially need massive investment from abroad to expand the infrastructure. Attractive offers for skilled workers must be created, including the construction of kindergartens and schools, apartments, hospitals and recreational facilities.

In contrast to Ukraine, Greenland's cost and time factor for extracting these raw material deposits is very high. There is still a long way off.

Warmongering, mass hysteria and propaganda

"The Russians are coming, Russia is going to invade Germany!" These voices have been haunting the German population since February 2022.

Old fears have also been flaring up again in Poland and Lithuania, causing borders to be once more closed and massively fortified, such as with the construction of so-called "dragon's teeth" on the “Königin Louisen Brücke” which connects former Tilsit with former Übermemel. [7]

Gone are the days of open borders: Tilsit (now Sowtesk), the birthplace of my grandmother Gertrude Herbst. She often crossed the bridge with my mother to Übermemel (now Panemunè) to go shopping at market there. Borders were open, there was a lively exchange. This was a normal state of things.

It's not just the Ministry of Defense who is saying that Germany needs to become fit for war again. Wearing a uniform is back in fashion, arms deliveries and war issues are currently part of everyday life in Germany.

The acting and perhaps new Defense Minister Pistorius is apparently highly respected among his troops. The first man in this post in many years, he promises very high expenditure for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr and a strengthening of the troops.

With numerous advertising videos, the Bundeswehr is encouraging enlistment for military services and the defense of human rights, freedom and democracy; this is portrayed as a service for Germany full of adventure, sporting challenges in a comradely community.

The Bundeswehr seems to be out of the "dirty corner".

Efficient propaganda, without question. A thirst for adventure and camaraderie appeal to many young people. But perhaps things look completely different behind the scenes.

The global defense industry is recording massive sales and is increasingly becoming an important economic driver in Germany, investing and creating new jobs and absorbing redundancies from the automotive industry, unlike other industrial sectors.

According to Sipri, "the world's 100 largest manufacturers of weapons, ammunition and war equipment increased their turnover from arms sales by 6.7% to a total of 632 billion US dollars in 2023".[8]

Further according to Sipri: “World military expenditure reached $2718 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.4 per cent in real terms from 2023….

Military spending increased in all world regions, with particularly rapid growth in both Europe and the Middle East. The top five military spenders—the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India—accounted for 60 per cent of the global total, with combined spending of $1635 billion”.[9]

The propaganda is in full swing—everywhere, it should be noted, in the USA, in Europe and in Russia. Does Germany seem particularly susceptible or why do the majority of Germans seem to be in favor of supplying weapons to Ukraine, a country that is supposedly defending our democracy? Emotions and fears take over and common sense is switched off. After all, how can Ukraine defend democracy in Germany?

Why should Russia, the largest country in the world in terms of area, invade Germany? What interest would Russia have in invading Germany? Germany is not attractive: There are hardly any raw materials and it lies surrounded by NATO countries. How are Russian troops supposed to invade Germany without first triggering a war with NATO? Would Putin really be that irrational or are we all on the verge of mass hysteria?

Putin, Trump and Xi Jingping

Three powerful men at the heads of three very large countries in terms of area. Russia is the largest country in the world, ahead of Canada, China is in third place, followed by the USA. Holding power over such "giant empires" can encourage a certain megalomania.

Despite this, all three have adopted very different approaches. The history and culture of the three countries differ greatly and so do their respective interests.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been repeatedly accused of wanting to return to its former greatness. There is no question that the break-up of the Soviet Union has left deep scars on the Russian soul.

Regardless of this, Russia has economic and geopolitical interests in securing access to the Black Sea. For the USA, Ukraine also plays a key geopolitical role in ensuring its supremacy in Eurasia, as Zbigniew Brzezinski explained in his book "The Grand Chessboard".[10]

Restoring a common memory and identity: Ukrainians and Russians

Jacques Ancel can again be quoted here: where "human groups ... reach a harmonious balance and ... end up recognizing borders deriving from a common memory, history, culture and language". It is "a nation of the heart in itself, not rational". ^[11]

Ukrainians and Russians are brother nations. All the more bitter is the long history of discrimination against Russian minorities in Ukraine, which should not be ignored.[12] Discrimination that has so far prevented an urgently needed harmony in Ukraine.

However the conflict ends, Ukraine is still a long way from becoming a pluralistic society, which it needs to be in order to secure peace in the long term. The aim must be to integrate the Russians living in Ukraine, the Russian-speaking population and Russophile Ukrainians in order to create a common new identity or revive the old one and to avoid future internal civil wars.

The treatment of minorities has long been a topic of discussion in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), for example, is seen as an agent of Russian influence, and church property and assets were confiscated even before the conflict started. The proportion of the Ukrainian language in the media was increased from 75% to 90%. That must be quite heartbreaking.

Russophile Ukrainians, who are not regarded as a native population, are committed to Russian heritage, Russian culture and the Russian language. They see themselves as citizens of Ukraine with the right to speak the language of their choice. [13]

Without a revival of a common memory, a common identity, an identity of heart, much needed, Ukraine will remain a soulless pawn in the interests of the major powers.

Trump—the unpredictable element

Trump has now made it into the Oval Office for the second time and has immediately shaken up world affairs.

The main difficulty for other country leaders is Trump's unpredictability, which makes him an unreliable negotiating and discussion partner.

But his unpredictability also presents an opportunity, because decisions are made quickly and initiatives are launched, such as the mediation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump cares little about what other people think of him. If decisions turn out to be wrong, he reverses them without batting an eyelid. He wants to conquer the world stage through entrepreneurial, but also sometimes ruthless behavior—he does not practice political diplomacy. The US approach is loud and attracts attention—a typical American cultural trait.

Certainly, the massive US-trade deficit with China in particular, just under 300 billion US dollars, is a thorn in the side. China now accounts for 14% of world trade, the USA for 12%, the EU for 31% .

But the USA is also dependent on China as a trading partner. The proportion i.e. of US imports of rare earths from China is 70%.[14]

Source: Statista (2025)

Tariffs, Greenland and the Panama Canal—the provocations from the White House stand in contrast to the rather quiet approach from Beijing.

Xi Jingping—the smiling, cunning leader[15]

Despite the current tariff disputes, there will not be a complete breakdown in economic relations between China and the US. And China knows this.

In contrast to the USA and Trump in particular, China has a deeply rooted cultural trait: the use of stratagems from ancient China that are still applied in many areas today. The Chinese have the ability to think and act for the long term and therefore to develop long-term strategies.

For example, the integration of Taiwan back into the motherland in 2049 is a key component of the "Grand Strategy". Unlike Trump or Putin, China will act more subtly and quietly to achieve its goals.

The Chinese economy is also consistently future-oriented, new technologies are developed almost playfully, which explains China's technological lead. Robots and AI have long been an integral part of everyday life in China; robots have even run the half marathon in Beijing.[16] Whether it makes sense or not is not questioned—creativity knows no bounds. A technological impartiality that is an advantage for the Chinese and can also benefit us to some extent.

In contrast to Trump, who returned to the helm of the USA at the age of 78, Xi Jingping, at 71, is already openly thinking about his retirement.

Without attracting attention, a leadership structure was established around him with expert guidance to ensure a smooth succession.

It seems that nothing stands in the way of achieving the "Grand Strategy".

The EU's dilemma—the European continent's opportunity

Although the EU is not a state, it is trying to participate on the playing field of world powers. But can this really succeed? So far, the results have been rather sobering. The EU has only made a name for itself in the creation of countless regulations and laws that place a burden on European companies in particular. Lobbying and bureaucracy determine everyday life in Brussels.

EU member countries disagree on many issues. The EU remains stuck in old ways of thinking and outdated structures, even though the world around it has changed.

A more spontaneous "Trump-like initiative" would do the EU good to promote necessary reforms, to break down EU borders and to rethink the European continent as a whole.

As the largest economic power, Germany is basically in a leadership role within the EU.

And if Napoleon is right: "The policy of all powers is determined by their geography" [17] then Germany—thanks to its geographical location in the middle of Europe—should also consider the role of mediator between East and West, between the USA and Russia.

As a political and economic middle power, Germany has a responsibility to take peacemaking measures and initiatives. Germany should therefore practice neutrality.

The areas of historic eastern Germany, including West and East Prussia and Silesia, with the stories and the people who once lived there and those who live there now, should be used as a model and an incentive for rebuilding the bridges of communication that have been torn down and for promoting understanding.

"Despite sanctions and dragon's teeth[18], Königsberg/Kaliningrad is becoming a meeting place where many private and business interactions are taking place. Getting there is sometimes strenuous and inconvenient. But it's possible. Buses leave from numerous cities in Germany, there are multiple connections every day from Gdansk. Many possibilities exist, all it takes is a little courage. Making use of these possibilities would be an important and sensitive step towards a peaceful world order. It's up to us Germans. "[19]

The beautiful historic East of Germany will one day fulfill its destiny: to bring about reconciliation and peace.

What holds us together—what holds the soul together

What holds a nation and a country together is certainly not a forced sense of community and enforced collectivism as it is in China or as it was in the former GDR.

To some extent, there are now some parallels, with the rearmament of the Bundeswehr, the casual approach to the war capability and the polishing up of the image of the troops. Control of the population, authoritarianism and divisions of all kinds should be a thing of the past.

As Jacques Ancel stated: It is the primarily soft factors, the common culture, the common language and common unspoken rituals, such as the simple Easter and Christmas rituals, that naturally and casually hold a society together and strengthen it.

Realism, objectivity and neutrality should be the guiding principles. We need fewer hotheads and more diplomats.

The new multipolar world order is a great opportunity for all of us to learn what it means to take into account the interests and especially the security interests of countries and to promote peaceful coexistence for the benefit of all.

There is a long road ahead of us, but it is worth taking step by step. All it takes is courage, foresight and a large portion of humor and composure.

Let’s make something of it!

Reading Tipps

Ancel, Jacques (1938): Géographie des frontières, Gallimard, Paris.

Banik, Katja (2024): Let’s reach out to Russia – for the sake of peace overcoming a “bloc mentality” and ideological firewalls.” www.katjabanik.com

Banik, Katja (2022): Im Rausch des Bernsteins – der historische Osten Deutschland.

Banik, Katja (2021): A clear view eastwards: Russia and German.

Banik, Katja (2021): Without roots, no future. Decoupling ideologies, www.katjabanik.com Bundeswehr auf YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@Bundeswehr

Brzezinski (1997): The Grand Chessboard.

Chao-Hsiu Chen (2001): Lächelnde List, Hugendubel Verlag, Kreuzlingen/München.

Deutscher Bundestag. Wissenschaftliche Dienste (2023): Rohstoffe der Ukraine.

Dohnanyi, Klaus (2022): Nationale Interessen, Siedler Verlag, München.

Donelaitis, Kristijonas (1765-1775): Die Jahreszeiten; aus dem Litauischen von Gottfried Schneider, C.H. Beck, 2021.

Kant, Immanuel (1795): Zum ewigen Frieden.

Lamszus,Wilhelm (1912): Das Menschschlachthaus, Alfred Janssen Verlag Hamburg Berlin.

Laßwitz, Kurd (1919): Asperia – der Roman einer Wolke.

Laßwitz, Kurd (1919): Sternentau – die Pflanze vom Neptunmond.

Liepen Aigars. NATO (2024): Ukraine resources. Critical raw materials.

[1] “Beauty is a welcome guest everywhere”.

[2] Ancel (1938): "La géographie des frontières".

[3] Banik (2020): "Borders and Identities".

[4] Banik (2025): “Let's reach out for Russia”.

[5] Deutscher Bundestag. Wissenschaftliche Dienste (2023): „Rohstoffe der Ukraine.“

[6] Liepen Aigars. NATO (2024): "Ukraine resources. Critical raw materials".

[7] Banik, Katja (2024): “Let's reach out for Russia”.

[8] Sipri (2024): “Arms industry data base”: http://www.sipri.org/databases/armsindustry

[9] Sipri (2025): “Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure as European and Middle East spending surges”,

http://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-europe...

[10] Brzezinski (1997): "The Grand Chessboard".

[11] Ancel (1938): "La géographie des frontières".

[12] Frankfurter Rundschau (2023): http://www.fr.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-russland-minderheiten-kirche-unterdrueckung-kiew-moskau-zr-9...

[13] http://www.fr.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-russland-minderheiten-kirche-unterdrueckung-kiew-moskau-zr-9...

[14] Statista (2025): “The U.S. Relies Heavily on Rare Earth Imports from China”.

[15] Chao-Hsiu Chen (2001): "The smiling cunning, 3 x 36 stratagems from ancient China".

[16] FAZ (2025): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VfrLvWVzRM

[17] From a letter written by Napoleon to the King of Prussia, November 10, 1804.

[18] Die Welt (2024): http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article253955680/Litauen-sichert-Bruecken-nach-Russland-ab-Panze...

[19] Banik (2024): "Lets reach out for Russia".